Poker

Eh, Where to Start... This may be long...

I'd been winning so far this year. Nothing too special, but enough to think I was making genuine progress in my game. However, for the past 6 weeks for every winning session I've had, I've had 3 losing sessions, and I feel like I don't understand anything, again. I'm sure just looking at the graph you can see there is something wrong, simply by the variance.

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So, I started with a NL2 Roll, and worked my way up to NL5 and felt pretty good about it. I was enjoying NL5 a lot, NL2 is such a cesspool that NL5 seems tame. What I thought was just standard variance downswing, came and never went. And now I'm sitting here with my initial deposit 115k hands later wondering where I went wrong?

I certainly didn't wait until now to start looking for leaks, but I'm feeling extremely lost. As such, Here is what I got heh


Since my knowledge of the game, as well as styles of play have changed vastly of the course of the graph above, I'm not really sure what sample size is best for some of my stats.

Over my last 50k hands i've been running 11/9/3.8 5% 3bet, 28% WTSD 50.9%W$SD 26%agg and 20% Steal. at NL5 I would steal more than 20%, my steal % stats can't be very accurate, as I spent a long time not stealing enough. Although, at NL2 20% is prolly not too far off because I figured the wider calling range/less fold equity would mean that my steal range needs to be more weighted towards value.

My stats are pretty tight, I know. From what I've learned that would mean lower variance, but I have anything but low variance All of this has led me to believe that my problem is Post flop. I'm not really sure how to proceed with a decent analysis of my overall postflop play over 100k hands. Here are some more of my stats:
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Focusing more on the last 40k hands of the graph, and I see my biggest losing hands are AKo and AKs. I'm not sure what exactly it is I'm doing wrong. Looking through my hands I see a few clear mistakes, a few clear coolers, and a few hands, where I know It's a fold against a 15/12/3.5 or less, but against the 65/25/3? ect.

After a closer look, It looks like I don't know how to play TPTK OOP against a wide range on a drawy board. OOP it seems I frequently 3bet AK preflop, and then cbet the flop, and typically if they haven't folded by the turn, I'm beat and pot committed. Is it a good idea to 3bet AK OOP preflop? From what I understand (notmuch) I would say that it is, because when I flop TPTK the stack sizes allow me to comfortably get it in... as well as isolating/squeezing preflop.

Theres like 10 of these, in my top losing AK hands... I 3bet preflop, flop a K or A heads up[, and there is either a straight or flush draw on the board. I Cbet 70% pot. Called. Draw hits or doesn't hit. I Cbet again. and I'm either 3bet shoved on or called down. In my AK hands, theres a good number of hands where i do this and win, but the general trend seems to be that when the draw misses I get my fold equity, and when it hits, they let me pot commit myself to death in the 3bet pot... Any Comments?

There are tons of leaks in my game, but if i knew what they were, they wouldn't be there. For now, it's just time to small ball AK up hardcore and hope I can not repeat my last 40k hands.

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It's been a long time since my last blog, I took a good 3-4 months off of poker. After failing hard and being too busy to put in the proper amount of time, I've come back to pick up where I left off as a n00b microgrinder... As I think anyone should I can beat NL2 very easily... I deposited ~$40 sometime in August, and for prolly 25k hands I beat NL2 at ~7BB/100... In my hand histories from Feb-June I was beating NL2 for 4BB/100 over 50k hands. I feel confident in my NL2, not that it's any sort of real achievement... It is NL2 after all...

My NL5 shots lately have certainly improved from my first NL5 shots at the beginning of the year. I don't currently have a great sample size, I'm currently -3bi after 3-4k hands. I've also switched over to FTP for rakeback/bonuses/promotions. These have really been a good boost for my BR and are allowing me to move up quicker (or more down more slowly)

For some reason NL5 really seems extremely different from NL2. I feel like I'm actually playing against players that aren't total maniacs. With an actual nit here or there. Quite different. Anyway, I feel like I know poker theory well for my level. I've read several books, watched countless videos, and most of the material is way over NL5 so it's not really applicable. It's still pretty educational, and also helps me understand why straight up ABC is so vital to NL25 and under... My Poker mindset has prolly advanced more than anything else in my play though... My tilting is far less troublesome, and I've gained enough conscious control to know when to stop playing and/or spewing

Anyway, heres graph/stats in case there are some gaping holes in my play that I don't see.





Stats wise, I would like to get my WTSD slightly lower, my W$WSF slightly higher, and my Att to steal slightly higher. However at this level I don't think these are huge issues because I feel my play -should- be good enough to beat these levels. I'm not really sure though, and I want to just play ABC as best I can, and maybe when i'm beating NL5 for 5BB/100 over 30k hands I'll feel comfortable enough to Cbet or raise sketchy cards on the button more...

Helps me to write all this down, If you wanna talk poker or anything hit me up AIM: Motiva69 MSN: Motiva at gmail com

Any comments/suggestions welcome as always, Thanks for reading yo

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lol. Over the course of my last 4 NL5 shots I am 18bi under EV over 9k hands. Back to NL2 again, I'm thinking... I feel like I've been playing decently. My red line is break-even or slightly above across the shots, however my W$SD is pretty bad in the 40s and I'm prolly 3betting too much. But I still can't help but feel that I can beat NL5 and that this is just variance. 9k hands really isn't anything.

I do beat NL2 at 3ptbb/100 over 40k hands. Which still isn't much, I know. But these players are so bad -- Whinewhinewhine I know


I'm tempted to just deposit $250 + my NL2 roll, and just jump to NL10 and put in mad hands and make it or bust lmao ~_~ Tilted like mad. EV nonsense says that I should only be 8bi under breakeven (accounting for a total of 26bi negative) which I think is pretty accurate, because I've easily spewwed more than 8bi tilting from the fucking suckouts...


Meh thanks for reading my tilted rant

Latest NL5 shot EV graph:
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